Monday, March 05, 2007
Back in the Saddle
I have returned from my much welcomed, much needed vacation and am fully refreshed. I took some efforts to catch up on what I missed on Sunday and rather than recap will just assume you ventured elsewhere to stay abreast of the Tigers’ week. There are two links, though, that I found particularly interesting. The first comes from Baseball Think Factory’s Carlos Gomez, and is about Kenny Rogers. He compares regular season Kenny to postseason Kenny and brilliantly points out the differences that provide evidence the postseason Gambler was really going balls out to get some additional velocity on his fastball. After all, the regular season version of his mechanics resulted in an 85 mph pitch and the postseason version ramped it up to 94 mph. Now, at the end of the article there are comments from readers, and just as I expected, the PED argument came up saying it’s the more likely explanation for Rogers adding almost 10 mph in the postseason.
I’ve heard this argument before, and I just wanted to point out a couple of things. First, while the pitch Gomez has video of was an 85 mph fastball, Rogers pretty regularly touched the upper 80s during the regular season. Additionally, I remember ESPN and FOX’s guns consistently showing Tiger pitchers at a couple mph over what they achieved over the course of the entire regular season. For example, Rodney supposedly hit 100 mph when I never recalled him getting above 98 in the regular season. Finally, I’m guessing Gomez picked the 94 mph pitch because it was the upper limits of what Rogers reached that night. What does all this mean? It means in a typical Rogers start he probably topped out at 88 or 89, and in this start against the Yankees he probably actually touched about 92 or 93. It’s a lot easier to believe he willed himself to throw two or three extra mph, and I personally think that’s possible without whatever drug people are suggesting he took. Perhaps that’s naïve of me, but I’ve grown tired of every exceptional performance being explained by PEDs.
The other thing I noticed was Billfer’s piece about Carlos Guillen and his willingness to take a gamble to keep Guillen in Detroit. He’s basically saying he’d be willing to give Guillen something close to what the Rangers gave their star shortstop, Michael Young – five years and $80M. He makes a good case, even though I don’t believe a player who is no longer effective at shortstop can be expected to be effective at second base (there may be a future study in that statement). Still, if I’m the Tigers, I cannot see offering Guillen a five year deal. I can see beating the average salary in the Young deal with something like three years and $54 or $57M, but I would just be too anxious about that fourth and fifth season. I agree entering 2008 without Guillen is not a happy thought, and if he wants to go hard line for a longer deal, I might try to appease him with options for 2010 and 2011. I just can’t see giving him a deal as long as what Young received, and if Guillen wants to walk to get five years on the open market, the Tigers will just have to get creative in the next offseason. My suggestion would be to find a defensive wiz who doesn’t cost as much and try to make up the lost runs at the plate at a less expensive position. My gut tells me this fretting is all for naught, though. I bet Guillen gets brought into the fold, and I bet people will be surprised at what his camp accepts.
I’ve heard this argument before, and I just wanted to point out a couple of things. First, while the pitch Gomez has video of was an 85 mph fastball, Rogers pretty regularly touched the upper 80s during the regular season. Additionally, I remember ESPN and FOX’s guns consistently showing Tiger pitchers at a couple mph over what they achieved over the course of the entire regular season. For example, Rodney supposedly hit 100 mph when I never recalled him getting above 98 in the regular season. Finally, I’m guessing Gomez picked the 94 mph pitch because it was the upper limits of what Rogers reached that night. What does all this mean? It means in a typical Rogers start he probably topped out at 88 or 89, and in this start against the Yankees he probably actually touched about 92 or 93. It’s a lot easier to believe he willed himself to throw two or three extra mph, and I personally think that’s possible without whatever drug people are suggesting he took. Perhaps that’s naïve of me, but I’ve grown tired of every exceptional performance being explained by PEDs.
The other thing I noticed was Billfer’s piece about Carlos Guillen and his willingness to take a gamble to keep Guillen in Detroit. He’s basically saying he’d be willing to give Guillen something close to what the Rangers gave their star shortstop, Michael Young – five years and $80M. He makes a good case, even though I don’t believe a player who is no longer effective at shortstop can be expected to be effective at second base (there may be a future study in that statement). Still, if I’m the Tigers, I cannot see offering Guillen a five year deal. I can see beating the average salary in the Young deal with something like three years and $54 or $57M, but I would just be too anxious about that fourth and fifth season. I agree entering 2008 without Guillen is not a happy thought, and if he wants to go hard line for a longer deal, I might try to appease him with options for 2010 and 2011. I just can’t see giving him a deal as long as what Young received, and if Guillen wants to walk to get five years on the open market, the Tigers will just have to get creative in the next offseason. My suggestion would be to find a defensive wiz who doesn’t cost as much and try to make up the lost runs at the plate at a less expensive position. My gut tells me this fretting is all for naught, though. I bet Guillen gets brought into the fold, and I bet people will be surprised at what his camp accepts.
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